# Is Serbia Seriously Pursuing Nuclear Power?

Serbia is pursuing nuclear power in earnest — not as a policy aspiration but as a structured, IAEA-milestone-driven programme backed by a signed tripartite agreement between the Serbian government, French nuclear operator EDF, and the French Development Agency (AFD). The AFD has committed a grant of EUR500,000 (USD576,000) specifically to build professional and organisational capacity in Serbia's nascent nuclear workforce. The country lifted a 35-year statutory ban on nuclear plant construction in 2024, and EDF delivered a Preliminary Technical Study in March 2026 identifying 19 key steps across three phases to bring Serbia from a nuclear-free state to an operational plant — which the Serbian government now targets for after 2040.

The timeline is deliberate. Serbia's Minister of Mining and Energy, Dubravka Đedović Handanović, has stated the goal is to complete all Phase 1 studies by the middle of 2027, enabling an informed technology selection decision. EDF is contracted to produce three additional studies within Phase 1; the remaining 14 studies will involve other international firms with relevant experience, per the minister's statement. That competitive aperture for the downstream studies is the detail most worth watching from a vendor-strategy perspective.

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## Why This Deal Matters Beyond the EUR500,000 Headline

The AFD grant is modest — EUR500,000 funds a feasibility team and some training exchanges, not a reactor. Its significance is structural: it formalises France's development-finance architecture behind EDF's commercial nuclear diplomacy, a model that has precedent in French nuclear engagements across Africa and the Middle East. For EDF, securing the early-phase study contract in October 2024 (alongside French engineering consultancy Egis) positions it as the knowledge anchor for Serbia's programme before any technology decision is made — the same playbook that tends to translate into preferred-bidder status when construction procurement opens.

Serbia's self-imposed framing around the IAEA milestones approach is the clearest signal that Belgrade is treating this as a decades-long infrastructure programme, not a political announcement. The IAEA's three-milestone framework — from the decision to consider nuclear power, through commitment to a specific project, to first concrete pour — typically takes 10 to 15 years even for well-resourced countries. Serbia's "after 2040" estimate for first power is therefore not conservative; it is realistic given the work that remains.

The human capital dimension is the binding constraint. Đedović Handanović identified workforce development explicitly as "one of the most important tasks," and the AFD grant is structured precisely to address it. Serbia has no operating reactor and no functioning nuclear regulatory body with licensing experience. Building the engineering pipeline — from university curriculum reform through to licensed operators — is not a problem EDF or AFD money alone can solve. It requires a generation of sustained institutional investment.

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## Phase Structure: What the EDF Study Actually Mapped

EDF's March 2026 Preliminary Technical Study on the Peaceful Use of Nuclear Energy in Serbia identified 19 key steps distributed across three phases:

- **Phase 1:** Feasibility examination and decision-making framework to formally launch a nuclear programme. EDF is contracted to complete three additional studies within this phase; 14 further studies are subject to competitive engagement with other international partners.
- **Phase 2:** Reactor type selection, contracting, and facility construction planning.
- **Phase 3:** Actual construction.

The minister's stated goal of completing all Phase 1 studies by mid-2027 is achievable on paper, but it assumes regulatory and institutional groundwork proceeds in parallel — not sequentially. Countries that attempt to compress pre-Phase 2 timelines by deferring regulatory body development typically encounter the longest delays later in the process.

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## The Vendor Landscape: EDF's Positioning and the Competition Ahead

EDF's current position in Serbia is strong but not exclusive. The study contract, the AFD financing mechanism, and France's diplomatic backing create significant incumbency advantages. However, the minister's explicit statement that 14 of the 19 Phase 1 studies will be opened to "various international companies" signals that Belgrade intends to preserve competitive tension through the technology selection phase.

Vendors with large-reactor offerings — including [Westinghouse Electric Company](https://smrintel.com/companies/westinghouse) with its AP1000 and [Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power](https://smrintel.com/companies/khnp) with APR1400 — will be watching Phase 1 progress closely. [Rolls-Royce SMR Ltd](https://smrintel.com/companies/rolls-royce-smr), which has been actively marketing its 470 MWe SMR across Central and Eastern Europe, is another credible entrant given the region's interest in smaller, grid-compatible units. Serbia's grid size and interconnection within the Western Balkans energy community would likely favour a unit in the 300–1,000 MWe range, but that determination is explicitly deferred to Phase 2 under the EDF study framework.

Russia's Rosatom, which has historically pursued Eastern European nuclear markets aggressively, faces significant geopolitical headwinds in Serbia given the broader European political environment — though Serbia's non-EU status and historically complex foreign policy alignment means it cannot be ruled out.

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## Analytical Assessment: Credibility and Risk Factors

**Credibility factors:**
- Legislative action (repeal of the 35-year ban) preceded the commercial agreements — the sequencing suggests genuine policy commitment rather than diplomatic theatre.
- IAEA milestone framework adoption indicates professional-grade programme management ambition.
- EDF engagement through a formal study contract (not just an MOU) provides a deliverable-based accountability structure.

**Risk factors:**
- EUR500,000 in AFD grant financing is far below what a credible workforce development programme for a nuclear newcomer country requires. Additional funding mechanisms will need to follow.
- Serbia lacks a mature nuclear regulatory body. Regulatory development is typically the longest-lead item in any newcomer programme and receives the least attention in early partnership announcements.
- The "after 2040" timeline creates significant political continuity risk across multiple election cycles in both Serbia and France.
- The 14 remaining Phase 1 studies being subject to "further consideration" introduces procurement complexity and potential delays if coordination between multiple international consultants is poorly managed.

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## Key Takeaways

- Serbia and EDF have signed a formal nuclear partnership agreement, supported by a EUR500,000 AFD grant targeted at workforce and institutional capacity building.
- EDF's March 2026 Preliminary Technical Study maps 19 steps across three phases; Serbia targets completion of all Phase 1 studies by mid-2027.
- Serbia's first nuclear power plant is officially projected for after 2040 — a realistic timeline for an IAEA-milestone-compliant newcomer programme.
- EDF holds the early-phase study contract (awarded October 2024, with Egis), but 14 of 19 Phase 1 studies are open to other international firms, preserving competitive space for rival vendors.
- Human capital development is the identified critical path item — a problem the current grant partially addresses but does not solve.
- The nuclear ban repeal in 2024 provided the legislative foundation; this agreement represents the first substantive commercial and financial architecture built on top of it.

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## Frequently Asked Questions

**When will Serbia get its first nuclear power plant?**
Serbia's Minister of Mining and Energy has stated the country could have its first nuclear power plant after 2040. This timeline assumes Phase 1 feasibility studies are completed by mid-2027, followed by technology selection and contracting in Phase 2, with construction in Phase 3.

**What role is EDF playing in Serbia's nuclear programme?**
EDF was awarded the contract by Serbia's Ministry of Mining and Energy in October 2024, alongside French engineering consultancy Egis, to conduct the preliminary technical study on nuclear power use in Serbia. EDF delivered that study in March 2026 and is contracted to produce three additional Phase 1 studies. EDF is also a signatory to the new tripartite partnership agreement alongside the Serbian government and the French Development Agency.

**How much is France investing in Serbia's nuclear programme?**
The French Development Agency (AFD) has provided a grant of EUR500,000 (USD576,000) to support professional and organisational capacity building in Serbia. This covers personnel training and institutional development within Phase 1, not reactor construction financing.

**What was Serbia's nuclear ban and when was it lifted?**
Serbia had a law prohibiting nuclear power plant construction that was in place for 35 years. In 2024, the Serbian National Assembly passed amendments to the energy law that ended this prohibition, clearing the path for the current programme development.

**Which reactor vendors might compete for Serbia's nuclear plant?**
No technology selection has been made; that decision falls under Phase 2 of the programme. EDF holds an incumbency advantage from its Phase 1 study contract, but Serbia's minister has indicated 14 of the 19 programme studies will involve other international companies. Vendors active in Central and Eastern European markets — including Westinghouse, KHNP, and Rolls-Royce SMR — would be logical participants in any future competitive process.