# Is Building a New Nuclear Plant Worth It for Switzerland?

A study commissioned by Economiesuisse and conducted by economic research institute Bak Economics concludes that a new EPR-type nuclear plant in Switzerland would generate CHF 1.6 billion annually in economic output and create more than 2,900 jobs — assuming a 60-year operating life and a 2050 start date. The construction phase alone would add CHF 7.4 billion in domestic value, equivalent to approximately 51 percent of total construction costs. Supply security gains are valued at CHF 520 million per year, and direct tax revenues — federal, cantonal, and municipal — are estimated at roughly CHF 95 million annually. The study's headline multiplier: every franc in subsidies yields CHF 1.50 in net GDP impact and an additional 15 rappen in tax revenue.

These are significant numbers, but the source and scope matter. This is an industry-commissioned analysis by a business federation — not an independent regulatory or academic assessment. That context does not invalidate the findings, but it should anchor expectations about how the Swiss parliament and nuclear regulator will weight them.

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## What the Bak Economics Analysis Actually Shows

The Bak Economics study models a single EPR-type reactor entering service in 2050. The EPR — European Pressurized Reactor — is a Generation III+ large pressurized water reactor with a gross output in the range of 1,600 MWe in its deployed versions at Flamanville (France) and Hinkley Point C (UK), though the source material does not specify the assumed output for the Swiss scenario.

Key figures from the study:

- **CHF 1.6 billion per year** in annual economic impact over a 60-year operational life
- **More than 2,900 jobs** created
- **CHF 7.4 billion** in domestic value added during the construction phase (~51% of total construction cost)
- **CHF 520 million per year** in energy security value
- **CHF 95 million per year** in direct tax revenues
- **CHF 1.50 GDP return per CHF 1 subsidy**, plus 15 rappen in tax revenue

The 51% domestic content figure during construction is notable. European nuclear projects have historically struggled to maintain domestic supply chain depth — the Flamanville 3 project was repeatedly cited for reliance on specialized foreign components. Switzerland's precision manufacturing sector could plausibly absorb a higher share of civil and mechanical work, but this figure deserves independent scrutiny.

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## The Political Context: From Ban to Ballot

Switzerland banned new nuclear construction in 2017 following a referendum, though that law did not mandate the shutdown of existing plants. Swiss voters have since demonstrated shifting sentiment. The country's four operating plants — Beznau 1 and 2, Gösgen, and Leibstadt — continue to provide a substantial share of domestic electricity generation, underpinning Switzerland's low-carbon [baseload power](https://smrintel.com/glossary/baseload) position.

The Economiesuisse commission of this study signals that Swiss business leadership is actively pushing to reopen the nuclear construction question ahead of any legislative or referendum process. Framing the argument in GDP and employment terms — rather than purely in energy security or decarbonization terms — reflects a deliberate political strategy.

A 2050 start date, however, exposes the core execution risk that no economic model can paper over. No European EPR project has been delivered on time or on budget. Hinkley Point C's cost trajectory and Flamanville 3's multi-decade construction saga are the unavoidable comparators. Switzerland would be procuring a [First of a Kind (FOAK)](https://smrintel.com/glossary/foak) plant in the European context — despite the EPR being a mature design on paper — because Swiss industry has had no recent nuclear construction experience.

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## Why the 2050 Timeline Is the Critical Variable

The Bak Economics scenario assumes operations beginning in 2050. That is 24 years from today. For context:

- Hinkley Point C received its final investment decision in 2016 and is not expected online until the early 2030s at the earliest — roughly 15 or more years of construction and commissioning.
- Finland's Olkiluoto 3 EPR took approximately 18 years from construction permit to commercial operation.

A Swiss EPR would first require legislative reversal of the construction ban, a site selection and licensing process, and then construction — with a regulatory framework that has not processed a new-build application in decades. Even an optimistic reading of that process makes 2050 a tight target.

This matters economically: the CHF 7.4 billion construction-phase value added is spread across that multi-decade build. The annual CHF 1.6 billion benefit only materializes post-2050. Discounted cash flow analysis of these figures — which the source material does not detail — could substantially alter the headline attractiveness.

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## Implications for the European Nuclear Market

Switzerland is not an isolated case. The Bak Economics study arrives as Germany debates whether its 2023 nuclear exit was premature, Belgium extended its Doel and Tihange units, and France's multi-decade EPR program at Flamanville finally approached commissioning. The broader European trend is toward nuclear life extension and, increasingly, new-build consideration.

For reactor vendors, Switzerland represents a prospective but distant market. The EPR framing in the study points toward [Westinghouse Electric Company](https://smrintel.com/companies/westinghouse), [GE Vernova / GE Hitachi Nuclear Energy](https://smrintel.com/companies/ge-vernova), or EDF's large-reactor offerings as eventual bidders — though SMR vendors will certainly make the case that smaller, modular units could de-risk the procurement and potentially accelerate the 2050 timeline.

The supply security argument — CHF 520 million per year in valued reliability — is arguably the most durable finding. Switzerland is a net electricity importer during winter peaks and relies on cross-border capacity from France and Germany, both of which face their own grid stress periods. Domestic firm [baseload power](https://smrintel.com/glossary/baseload) has a structural value that persists regardless of electricity market price assumptions.

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## Key Takeaways

- Bak Economics, commissioned by Economiesuisse, projects CHF 1.6 billion/year in economic output from a new Swiss EPR over a 60-year life
- Construction phase estimated to generate CHF 7.4 billion in domestic value added — approximately 51% of total construction cost
- Energy security benefit valued at CHF 520 million annually; direct tax yield at ~CHF 95 million/year
- Subsidy multiplier modeled at CHF 1.50 GDP per CHF 1 spent, plus 15 rappen in tax revenue
- The scenario assumes a 2050 operational start — a timeline that requires legislative reversal of Switzerland's 2017 construction ban and has no margin for the delays that have characterized all recent European EPR projects
- The study is industry-commissioned; independent regulatory and academic verification will be essential before it carries weight in legislative debate

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## Frequently Asked Questions

**What did the Bak Economics study find about a new Swiss nuclear plant?**
Commissioned by Economiesuisse, the Bak Economics study found that an EPR-type nuclear plant starting operations in 2050 would generate CHF 1.6 billion per year in economic output, create more than 2,900 jobs, and add CHF 7.4 billion in domestic value during construction — approximately 51% of total construction costs.

**What type of reactor does the Swiss study model?**
The study uses an EPR-type (European Pressurized Reactor) as its reference design, targeting a 2050 start date with a 60-year assumed operating life.

**Can Switzerland legally build a new nuclear plant?**
Not under current law. Switzerland banned new nuclear construction following a 2017 referendum. Any new-build would require legislative reversal of that prohibition before licensing or construction could begin.

**What is the energy security value cited in the Swiss nuclear study?**
Bak Economics estimates the security-of-supply benefit at CHF 520 million per year — reflecting the structural value of domestic firm baseload generation in a country that imports electricity during winter peak periods.

**What is the subsidy return ratio calculated in the Economiesuisse study?**
The study calculates that every franc of public subsidy generates CHF 1.50 in net GDP effect and 15 rappen (0.15 francs) in tax revenue, based on the EPR construction and operational scenario modeled.